TOKYO -- The price pressure on Mitsubishi Motors Corp. shares looks set to continue, given a lack of bold and realistic steps to turn around the fortunes of the Japanese auto maker, analysts and fund managers say.
Mitsubishi Motors' share price has dropped 11 per cent since May 21, when it announced a wide-ranging restructuring plan, in a firmer overall market. Japan's No. 4 car maker in terms of vehicle sales said it will close plants, cut 10,000 jobs, launch a range of new models and focus more on the China market. It also got a big bailout from companies related to the Mitsubishi group and an investment fund to set those plans in motion and help it overcome a liquidity crunch.
Over the next three years, Mitsubishi Motors says it aims to sell 1.71 million vehicles globally, up 12 per cent from the 1.53 million units it sold in the year ended March 31. The company hopes to entice consumers by introducing as many as 44 new vehicle models over the next four years, ranging from small cars to sport-utility vehicles.
But many investors are skeptical that Mitsubishi Motors will be able to achieve such lofty goals. It's a challenge for any company in the fiercely competitive car market, and it is a particularly tough one for Mitsubishi Motors. Its global sales fell 6 per cent in April from a year earlier, with sales dropping 29 per cent in North America, where the company has stumbled hard due to souring auto loans and a slump in demand for its cars after it tightened lax credit criteria.
In Japan, Mitsubishi Motors' brand image has been hurt by recalls and attempts to cover up faulty products. Domestic sales, excluding mini-vehicles, plunged 56 per cent in May from a year earlier.
Yesterday, the company announced that it hid 26 defects in its cars from regulators in addition to four problems it publicized in 2000 to avoid issuing recalls for the vehicles.
Koji Endo, an analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston, says Mitsubishi Motors' sales target is "too optimistic," given that sales volume has hardly increased in the past 10 years. Mr. Endo has an "underperform" rating on the stock and predicts the price will fall to ¥200 ($1.81 U.S.) a share. Yesterday, the company's shares closed at ¥218 on the Tokyo exchange, down ¥2.
Goldman Sachs analyst Kunihiko Shiohara warns that the company's brand image isn't attractive right now. Given the damage to Mitsubishi Motors' image from recalls and admissions of attempts to cover up defective products at its Mitsubishi Fuso Truck & Bus Corp. affiliate, he says it is doubtful consumers in Japan will flock to buy its cars.
"It remains to be seen how much Mitsubishi's sales can be boosted by an increase in new model offerings when the company's brand image has been damaged," says Mr. Shiohara. He has an "underperform" rating on Mitsubishi Motors.
Still, investors say the reform plans will probably improve Mitsubishi Motors' financial standing and operating performance at least in the short term. Venture capital firm Phoenix Capital, which will buy common shares Mitsubishi Motors will issue under its planned capital increase program and take up to a 40 per cent stake, will likely push the auto maker hard to restructure its business and become profitable again.
The ¥450-billion bailout, which will also include ¥270-billion from Mitsubishi group companies and an investment by J.P. Morgan Chase, will help Mitsubishi Motors cope with short-term financing needs and the cost of servicing its ¥1.1-trillion debt load.