Vehicle sales fell 10 per cent in Canada in November, with just one of the five major auto companies reporting a gain for the month.

Toyota Canada Inc. eked out a 2-per-cent gain to rack up its 11th straight month of record sales and surpass its total for all of 2002.

That was one of the few bright spots in a month when overall sales fell to 112,380 from 124,229 a year earlier.

Only Toyota, Volvo Canada Inc., with a 10-per-cent gain, Nissan Canada Inc. with a 2-per-cent jump and Porsche Canada posted increases.

A drop in incentives and the relative youth of vehicles in Canadians' driveways help explain the decline, said industry analyst Dennis DesRosiers, president of DesRosiers Automotive Consultants Inc. in Richmond Hill, Ont.

About 60 per cent of Canadians have a vehicle less than five years old, Mr. DesRosiers said, which means "the market is about as saturated as it ever has been."

Sales "just died" in the last two weeks of November, said one dealer, who expects the slide to continue in December, which would be a break from past performance when year-end incentives have sent December sales soaring.

Last month, General Motors of Canada Ltd. outperformed the overall market despite a 3-per-cent drop in sales, to 34,838 vehicles from 35,820.

DaimlerChrysler Canada Inc. posted another poor month with sales down 20 per cent from year-earlier levels. Sales slid to 15,128 from 18,971 in November, 2002.

Ford Motor Co. of Canada Ltd. also had a lacklustre month, with sales down 11 per cent to 15,898 from 17,813 a year earlier.

Toyota's 2-per-cent jump extends the best performance this year among the major companies.

Sales for Honda Canada Inc. tumbled 13 per cent, to 10,855 from 12,459 a year earlier.

While the November sales in Canada were poor, analysts expect a return to growth next year.

Vehicle sales should jump back to 1.68 million in Canada next year after falling to 1.64 million this year, Bob Schnorbus, chief economist for J.D. Power and Associates, said yesterday. The gains will be gradual and could still get "blindsided" by a slowdown in incentive growth, Mr. Schnorbus told a conference sponsored by the consulting firm.

"The big risk out there is what happens with incentives," he said.

Bank of Nova Scotia economist Carlos Gomes is forecasting that sales will rebound next year and hit a record high of 1.71 million.

That's based partly on a recovery from the economic shocks caused by the SARS and mad-cow disease scares earlier this year, Mr. Gomes said in a report.