Ford Motor Co. of Canada Ltd. is shutting its minivan plant in Oakville, Ont., for seven days starting Dec. 15 -- a little more than three months into production of a new model -- raising questions about plans to add a third shift at the factory next summer.

"They are not going to need a third shift," one industry source said yesterday.

Parent Ford Motor Co. spent $600-million redeveloping the Oakville Assembly Plant for production of the Freestar. It is putting 3,100 workers on temporary layoff amid slow sales of Freestar and a Mercury version called the Monterey, plus a shortage of rail cars to transport them, union officials and industry sources said.

A shutdown so soon after a new vehicle launch is almost unprecedented, said the industry source. Ford is being hit by a double whammy of increased competition in the segment, even as minivan sales, over all, decline in North America.

"It's not good," Bob Van Cleef, president of local 707 of the Canadian Auto Workers union, said of the shutdown. The union represents workers at the minivan plant and Ontario Truck Plant, which is located next door.

Ford Canada spokeswoman Lauren More said the auto maker is having difficulty finding enough transportation for the new minivans.

"That's the main issue at this point," Ms. More said yesterday, confirming that the plant will be closed the week of Dec. 15 and two days the week of Dec. 22 before the annual Christmas shutdown.

Ford has a 120-day supply of the vehicles on hand, which is about double the normal industry guideline, although it's not that far out of whack when a vehicle is new and sales haven't yet reached the expected monthly levels.

Ford sold just 3,800 Freestars in October. A better indication of how healthy sales are should come today when Ford releases figures for November.

"The compact van market is extremely competitive and Ford is not immune to high incentives and new competition," said industry analyst Michael Robinet, vice-president of consulting firm CSM Worldwide Inc. in Northville, Mich.

Workers at the pickup plant are assembling the old version of Ford's F-series pickup, which was also redesigned for the 2004 model year. Even though that plant is scheduled to close next July, overtime has been scheduled throughout January, February and March, Mr. Van Cleef said.

The plan agreed to with the CAW during contract talks last year called for the auto maker to create a third shift and increase output at the minivan plant, which would provide employment for 900 people from the pickup plant.

If Ford does not add a third shift at that time, it must pay workers 80 per cent of their weekly wages for the rest of the contract, which expires in September, 2005, or until it adds a third shift.

CAW president Buzz Hargrove joked during contract negotiations last year that it would be fine with him if the Ford workers sold pencils on a street corner in Oakville as long as Ford continued to pay them.

Analysts suggested even then that his comment wasn't that far off the mark because of increasing competition in a declining segment.

They also noted that the main new feature of the Freestar -- a fold-into-the-floor third seat -- amounted to catch-up because Honda Motor Co. Ltd. had been offering that feature on its Odyssey minivan for several years.

"I haven't given up the ship on [a third shift] yet," said Alex Keeney, who headed the CAW's Ford bargaining committee last fall and is now a national CAW representative.

"Right now, the whole economy is in a state of flux. Ford's got something like 14 plants down the week of Dec. 15."

The other problem between now and next summer, when the truck plant is scheduled to close, is that there will be more new competition in the minivan market.

DaimlerChrysler AG, which sells the most minivans, is coming out in March with a redesigned version of its Dodge Caravan and Chrysler Town and Country minivans that could trump all players with two sets of seats that fold into the floor.

The minivan segment is representative of what's happening in the U.S. market generally, where Ford, DaimlerChrysler and General Motors Corp. are losing market share to Honda, Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. and Toyota Motor Corp.